Effect of the change in value added tax on the fiscal stability of Kosovo /Gani Asllani, Bedri Statovci.
Sažetak

The main goal of this paper is to analyse the effect of the change in tax rates for VAT for certain categories of goods on the fiscal stability of Kosovo. In Kosovo, VAT has been applied since 2001 and is an indirect tax on consumption that is the principal source of revenue to the state budget. The importance of this research paper is its focus on whether the changes made to the VAT rates in September 2015 have had positive or negative effects on some product prices, increasing or decreasing the state budget and the impact on the development of economic indicators expressed through GDP. The methodology of the paper is based on the comparative analysis of the data using both primary and secondary sources. The econometric model includes two variables and their relationships, independent variables, such as VAT, and dependent variables, like GDP. Through the econometric model and linear regression analysis for the period 2013-2016, the hypotheses have been tested with STATA application/software to calculate the impact of changes in the tax rate for VAT on the budget, economic growth and economic development. The results of the analysis show that the VAT reduction from 16% to 8% for basic products and the increase in VAT from 16% to 18% on luxury products had a positive effect on budget revenues and growth of GDP of Kosovo.; Glavni cilj ovog rada je analizirati učinak promjene stopa PDV-a za određene kategorije robe na fiskalnu stabilnost Kosova. PDV na Kosovu je u primjeni od 2001. godine i neizravni je porez na potrošnju koji donosi glavni prihod državnom proračunu. Važnost ovog istraživačkog rada usmjerena je na to jesu li promjene u stopama PDV-a u rujnu 2015. godine imale pozitivne ili negativne utjecaje na neke cijene proizvoda, povećavajući ili smanjujući prihode te kako je to utjecalo na kretanje ekonomskih pokazatelja iskazanih kroz BDP. Metodologija rada temelji se na usporednoj analizi podataka iz primarnih i sekundarnih izvora. Ekonometrijski model uključuje dvije varijable i njihove odnose, (nezavisna varijabla - PDV i zavisna varijabla – BDP). Kroz ekonometrijski model i linearnu regresijsku analizu za razdoblje 2013.-2016., hipoteze su testirane pomoću STATA kako bi se utvrdio utjecaj promjena stope PDV-a na proračun, gospodarski rast i ekonomski razvoj. Rezultati analize pokazuju da je smanjenje PDV-a sa 16% na 8% za osnovne proizvode i povećanje PDV-a sa 16% na 18% na luksuzne proizvode, imao pozitivan učinak na prihode i rast BDP-a Kosova.